MCCI Report: All Confidence Indicators Down

No more, seem to say traders. This is at least the feeling that reflects the MCCI Business Confidence Indicator , released by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Thursday, June 27. The index lost 4, 1 point (4.5%) for the period spanning between April and June this year. It now stands at 87.5 points, an estimate considerably lower than the long-term average of 100 basis points. This quarterly economic survey was carried out between 3 and 17 June 2013.

The results show that operators believe that economic performance will be lower than the second quarter of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. We are in the downward phase of the economic cycle, the report said the MCCI, following the correlation between the component scores of entrepreneurs on the evolution of their numbers, and component, future expectations of entrepreneurs.

Highlights of the report: all sectoral indices confidence are falling. Whereas the price level is the disinflation continued this quarter. As for employment, the status quo for the time being, with a balance in layoffs and job offers.

Another highlight for the first time, entrepreneurs talk about their dissatisfaction do with that could make their state. The result shows a negative anticipation - 5 points. 

Factors affecting performance include the local demand, market competition, the degradation of the global environment and fierce competition in the international and local markets. However, the report stresses that the MCCI published results are not fixed. But the country is in a period marked by continued uncertainty period. Without long-term visibility.

Overview of the highlights of the release of MCCI Business Confidence Indicator (13 th edition), presented by Renganaden Padayachy and Sanroy Seechurn.

Manufacturing: the largest decline 

A thorough analysis shows that the manufacturing sector recorded the largest decrease, with 5.7% recorded in the second quarter. The estimate is based on three variables: the numbers are average for the second quarter and anticipate a ripple effect in three e quarter of this year.The high level of stocks. So, this could weigh on the financial means of manufacturing companies and limit their potential to invest.

Services: indication concern

Down 4.3% this quarter. The confidence index picnic nose, after the strong increase of 7% in the last quarter. Recall that this sector which includes 70% of our gross domestic product, and this cross-way ranging from tourism related activities outsourcing, the report of the MCCI. The mood morose worried.

The trade sector appears, also a downward trend. An increase of approximately 5% in the last quarter fell to 3, 6% this quarter. Wage compensation in the public sector has not had the desired effect on their sales. Anticipation: deterioration of business in the coming months.

Investment & Jobs: two bell sounds

Decrease in planned investment. 30% of respondents expect a reduction in their investments for the next twelve months, against 18% of companies reporting the opposite. However, we note that investment in machinery and equipment will be privileged. Otherwise, research and development also occupy 15% of investments.

As for employment, it is the status quo. The indicator keeps the balance between those who increase their numbers, thanks to diversification projects or expansion. While some companies will conduct layoffs, driven by the decline in their sales where the urgent need for corporate restructuring arises.

Falling rate of profitability

If disinflation has been delighting consumers. But would it really be happy? 35% of respondents indicate that they have resorted to price cuts to cope with the fierce competition, against only 14% who makes price increases for their products or services. Falling prices for 2013 will impact on corporate profitability, and variable influence investment decisions ...