August 14, 2013

Economic Barometer PluriConseil

The collective investment fund dislodge the real estate market in the first place in the ranking of the favorite investment analysts. In the same vein, they tend to envision the dollar.

1. The optimism just to meet


The prospects of our economy on the horizon of one year, 37% of analysts say they are quite optimistic. This is a higher rate than in May (30%), but still lower than that recorded in April (43%). Which maintains some optimism is the fact that "the economic climate is starting to look up across the world. "There are also signs that the German growth accelerated in the second quarter, resulting in these days an upward trend of the euro. For a fund manager, "the expected recovery in Europe Will positively impact on our exports." And if Maurice continues its strategy of diversifying markets, economic conditions will improve.


2. What are your estimates of the growth rate and the unemployment rate for the year 2013?

2013 worse than 2012


Estimation du taux
de croissance pour 2013

Estimation du taux
de chômage pour 2013

3,3% ou plus


8,6% ou plus


3,1% à 3,2%


8,4% à 8,5%


3,0% ou moins


8,3% ou moins



The vast majority of respondents, the Mauritian economy will be worse in 2013 than in 2012, with less than 3.3% growth rate provided by Statistics Mauritius. Nine out of ten analysts also believe that the unemployment rate this year will be higher than the official estimate of 8.3%. Our economic performance remain, according to an economist, "under pressure in the Foreseeable future at least, Unless the scope and depth of the reform agenda is geared up to materially Improve the country's compétitivité levels." Therefore, "the overall job Creation capacity of businesses is expected to be quite restrained for some time yet, the more so Given the prevalence of labor market imperfections at different

echelons. "


3. What is your forecast of the inflation rate for 2013?

Inflation under control in 2013



In July, for the sixth consecutive month, the average inflation remains stubbornly at 3.6% yoy. Analysts are now more likely to 77%, against 67% last month, to anticipate inflation below 4.3% for the year 2013. If prices are still up, it's because the last quarter is a period where people spend the most. Behavior that will be exacerbated by wage measures Pay Research Bureau (PRB). A financial expert warns: "Inflation May pick up in 2014. "


4. What direction the Repo Rate you expect by the end of 2013?



See you in 2014

"How low can it go? "Asks an investment consultant. "The real savings bank interest rate is negative Already. "The paris are already open to see if the repo rate will be changed before 31 December 2013. Taken against the foot the last time, 77% of analysts do not budge and rely on the status quo. There are still 13% of respondents anticipate a further decline in the interest rate, and 10% who expect a rapid change, namely a monetary tightening. The 'Bank Rate', it has increased 25 basis points since the last decision of the Monetary Policy Committee.


5. What changes in major currencies against the rupee you plan within three months (November 2013)?



par rapport
à la roupie

par rapport
à la roupie

par rapport
à la roupie

Tendance à s’apprécier




Tendance à se déprécier




Plus ou moins stable





The most stable pound

During the past week, the pound has gained a rupee, but it is cheaper than early May. 77% of respondents, the sale price back below Rs 47.85. As for the exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar, it is the same as three months ago, but 57% of respondents think it will grow to over Rs 31.82 by November. Although the euro tends to appreciate in the international market, an analyst believes it will be two more or less stable in the next three months.


6. What kind of local investment you think is more favorable at the moment?

Local market share   20%

Government bonds   10%

Bank deposits in rupees       10%

Foreign           7%

Real Estate Market    23%

Collective investment funds            30%


Revoilà investment funds

Never too distanced, collective investment funds making a comeback to snatch first place in the real estate market. But, according to a financial expert, the most promising are those funds denominated in U.S. dollars, not Mauritian rupee. Is that international equity markets seem to invigorate. In contrast, the stock market of Port Louis is not so attractive with a market rate of return of 2.65%. Otherwise, some good real estate investment opportunities are present here, including apartments and land fragmentation.


7. What title in the SEM-7 has the highest potential market value within six months?

Alteo   20%

Bramer Banking Corporation          3%

ENL Land       3%

Mauritius Commercial Bank            40%

New Mauritius Hotels           10%

State Bank of Mauritius        13%

Terra Mauricia          10%



Bank stocks jostled

The two bank values SEM-7 lose some luster among our analysts with a combined estimated rate of 53%, against 60% in May. These are the titles New Mauritius Hotels (NMH) and Terra Mauricia which reap some points to total 20%. Although the course has decreased by four rupees, title Atleo maintains pressure maintaining its second position with as many points as last time (20%). The group recently successfully sold several plots of land in some grinds.


8. What orientation Semdex you plan within six months (February 2014)?


Speculation on the rise

The local stock market has been rather quiet lately, agents are awaiting quarterly results of many listed companies that will be published tomorrow. What emerges will have a positive or negative influence on the evolution of Semdex. But already, 37% of analysts are speculating on a rise of more than 56 points in the stock market in the next six months. Whatever happens, we will also monitor closely the obligations of listed companies.


Survey by PluriConseil from 5 to 8 August 2013 among a representative sample of 30 economic and financial analysts



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