This was explained Bernard Lugan , historian, political scientist and geo- continental Africa, during a panel discussion " Getting to know Africa before investing " in the context of AfrAsia Tecoma Award, Friday, Aug. 30 , at Angsana Hotel, Balaclava . This conference aims to create a new platform for interaction with all selected nominees for " Entrepreneur of the Year" since 1995 to promote Tecoma , brand of entrepreneurship in the Indian Ocean.
If Africa is attracting all desires , this continent is complex and extremely diverse with areas of high tension and some particularly fragile states. A good knowledge of these geopolitical realities - often neglected - avoid making bad choices and wipe serious setbacks . The geopolitical approach , too often neglected by economists and financial , is very important and even indispensable when it comes , not , just to trade but to invest in the long - term.
"If you want to trade with Africa, there is no problem. The potential is enormous because also reveals this continent represents less than 4 % of world trade and the rise of the middle classes in some countries generates new needs. By cons , if one plans to invest in Africa , you have to be careful and make the right choice , "said Bernard Lugan .
Among the most successful in terms of growth in Africa over the period 2008-2012 , namely Libya , Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana , Liberia , Sierra Leone , Mozambique, Malawi, Rwanda and Zimbabwe , Bernard Lugan explains that only three of these countries need to be considered by investors , including Ethiopia, Ghana and Mozambique.
There are , according to him , truths to highlight and we must begin to speak, not from Africa but Africas . Growth is fragile because it relies mainly on raw materials . This with huge regional differences in terms of access to the sea as well as the problem of the geopolitics of oil.
The biggest problem, according to Bernard Lugan remains the political problems that will come largely curb economic outlook. " The macroeconomic approach does not facilitate understanding because it ignores the earth and men ... The policy can have devastating effects on the economy ," he maintains .
Ethiopia : A large country of the future
"Ethiopia is a big country of the future ... It is also the policeman of the Horn of Africa, with one of the best armies in the continent with that of Angola . But this country has lost its coastline with Eritrea and " a war is possible if he wants to find ," says Bernard Lugan . Large projects , he said, are being including that of a huge hydroelectric plant for the entire Arabian Peninsula.
But this project causes problems with Egypt " which lives only by the Nile ." The Ethiopian project , coupled with a project in Southern Sudan will hold water that Egypt wanted to capture for irrigation. Egypt is , as stated Bernard Lugan , a country whose number one problem is overpopulation. The population would have reached the milestone of 100 million, while the country has the capacity to feed 40 million . This explains why Egypt is the largest importer of wheat.
Uganda , Angola and Tanzania: land of opportunity
Other countries are attracting attention as a "country of the future" : Uganda , Angola and Tanzania. This watch is more reserved about Kenya, mired in endless ethnic conflicts. Generally , Francophone Africa seems less attractive and large Francophone country of the DRC is no longer really like country with areas beyond the power of the state .
South Africa: islands of growth in a country that is sinking
Far from having to expectations born after the end of apartheid, South Africa has the same tendency to " sink . " Slow growth does not meet the needs jobs and unemployment increases then we are witnessing a flight of " brains " . Anyway , there are high-tech sectors that survive and remain attractive for investors . Be careful though ! Zimbabwean scenario is not excluded and could be catastrophic .
Ghana : A safe bet
Other country of the future , according to Bernard Lugan is Mozambique, which has fertile land, a long coastline and vast wealth gas . But this country has not completely stopped the problem of war and especially the level of corruption there remains significant. He explains that in the end of the 10 " most powerful " countries , Ghana is the safe bet, especially since it is discovered exploited oil reserves since 2011 . This country has two dominant ethnic groups that are both located in the South, thereby avoiding regional conflicts including the " North against South" found in several African countries .
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