Statistics: The Service Sector Will Expand More Than The Productive Sector

These are the data emerging from the latest forecast from Statistics Mauritius. CIM Stockbrokers is slightly more optimistic with a growth rate of 3.4%. In June this year, Statistics Mauritius provided an expansion rate of 3.5%. Over the months, economic conditions seem to have deteriorated.

The factory will grow by only 1% minimalist instead of the expected 1.9%. The hotel will decline by 0.5% against 1.6% growth initially discount. This is mainly due to tourist arrivals of 960,000, whereas last year we had counted 964,642 visitors.

The goal of one million tourists seems distant. Decrease in the number of tourists is directly related to the economic crisis in Europe. Our traditional customers prefer closer destinations and equally sunny. The price of the plane ticket to come to Mauritius is rather prohibitive. Diversification into India and China, among others, has not yet borne fruit.

Sugar production will be 410 000 tonnes, which represents a negative growth of 7% compared to 435.3 thousand tons of the 2011 season. The machining of sugar will decline by 3.4% compared to the positive growth of 3.8% last year.

Food production is one of the few areas up to 3.9% this year after a decline of 1.6% in 2011. Textiles fall to - 2.7% after strong growth of 8% last year. The export industry will grow almost anywhere by 0.6% against 8.4% in 2011.

Construction record negative growth of 1.2% after 2% last year. The building is considered to be an indicator of the state of the economy when the construction goes, everything goes, they say.

Transport and communication will grow 4.4% this year against 4.9% in 2011. Will finance 4.8% against 5.5% last year. Business (business activities) will be 8.3% instead of 9% in 2011.

The service sector is generally better than the traditional sectors, a few exceptions. This indicates a reorientation of our economy and the harsh competition from low-wage countries like China.

Growth of household consumption and government will be 2.6%, slightly better than the 2.5% recorded in 2011. National savings will be nearly Rs 3 billion higher this year compared to 2011. But the savings rate relative to disposable income will be slightly to 4.6% against 4.8% in 2011.

The investment will increase in nominal terms but in real rates will be declining by 0.7% after anemic growth of 0.3% last year. Investment rates decline by 1% to 22.8%. Investment in machinery and equipment will be stalled after a 5.8% growth in 2011.

The private sector investment will decline - 3.3% after a 1.9% growth in 2011. The government will be there to supplement with a 7.7% growth in public infrastructure such as roads, airport and prison.

Imports of goods and services increase by 2.7% in real terms, after rising 6.4% last year. That will relieve some recurring trade deficit.

Exports of goods and services to be superior to imports once with 4.4% growth. This is unprecedented in recent history. The trade deficit is still only Rs 1.4 billion. It was used a lot more.

In the administration and defense, growth will be 2.2% instead of 2.8%.