Indian Ocean – Realpolitik: The Chagos Deal compromised by the English hawks

The arrival of the former English Prime Minister, David Cameron, at the Foreign Office, came to cheer up the hawks within Rishi Sunak's cabinet against the Chagos Deal, confirming the return of the archipelago under the control of the Republic of Mauritius , thereby completing the process of decolonization.

Thus, with the trip to Washington this week by the British Foreign Secretary and discussions with the Top Guns of the American Administration, big political-diplomatic clouds are gathering on the horizon of the Indian Ocean over the Chagos . The internal tremors shaking the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, do not bode well for the hopes fueled since the Joint Statement in London and Port-Louis on November 3, 2022. The Political Talk in London is only the days of Cyprus -Style Deal on the Chagos are counted. But, at this stage, there is no indication of what form the announcement of this decision from No 10 Downing Street will take or whether Port Louis can hope to participate in a new round on Chagos.

In any case, the very conservative British daily, The Telegraph, is not shy about announcing this week that “Britain will drop plans to hand the Chagos Islands back to Mauritius under a new strategy being drawn up by Grant Shapps (Defence Secretary )”. The Foreign Secretary questioned the entire program and work schedule leading to the conclusion of this agreement with Mauritius for the return of Chagos to the Republic of Mauritius following the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice of February 25, 2019 and United Nations Resolution 73/295 of May 22 of the same year.

Thus, a trio of British hawks, including the Deputy Prime Minister, Oliver Dowden, Lord Cameron and Grant Shapps, constitutes the hard core within the Sunak Cabinet to resist any agreement with Mauritius. In order to consolidate their objection, the exchanges between Cameron/Blinken in Washington proved decisive in the execution of their sinister plan.

« All three ministers are understood to be concerned that ceding them to Mauritius, which is allied with China, would endanger the UK’s special relationship with the US and its defence interests in the Indo-Pacific region », notes The Telegraph, which reveals that upon taking office as Defense Secretary, strongly maintains that « the islands should remain under British control, rejecting the international court ruling and defying the UN ».

This position echoes the virulent exit last September of the former British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. The latter spoke of “‘colossal mistake’ to give away the Chagos Islands, describing a government plan ‘to haul down the flag, casting doubt on a major Western strategic asset’”.

The latest indications, reported by The Telegraph are that « the Foreign Office drew up a Cyprus-style’ deal for Mauritius to be given sovereignty over the 60 islands, with Britain to remain in control of the military base. It mirrors the agreement struck between Britain, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey over two military bases in Cyprus in 1960, when the island was granted independence from the UK ».

The conservative daily also reports the amount of rent for the American base of Diego-Garcia to be paid to Mauritius, i.e. Rs 120 billion, representing at least 25% of the Gross Domestic Product at Padayachy. “The deal would also involve the UK making a significant payment, of as much as £2 billion, to the Mauritian government in exchange for use of the military base,” reports The Telegraph. The lease of the Diego-Garcia base is announced for a fixed period.

The main rallying thesis remains the political, diplomatic and economic proximity maintained by Port-Louis with Beijing. And above all Washington's unconditional condition against the joint Truss/Sunak Move on Chagos. “Whatever solution you come up with, unless the Pentagon approves it, it’s dead”, we made it clear to The Telegraph, adding that “they don’t want anything that threatens the current status of the air base”.

However, a spokesperson for the Foreign Office simply states that: : « our clear aim is the continued full operation of the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, which plays a crucial role in national, regional and global security. The UK will only enter into an agreement that protects our national interests and those of our partners ».

On the side of the Government House in Port-Louis, we prefer to avoid making public comments about these negotiations within the British government, affirming that there is a line of communication between Port-Louis and London under the form of consultation rounds approved since November 3, 2022.

However, other informed circles add that opposition to the Chagos Deal in London has only gained increasing ground with this time three Senior Cabinet Members of the Sunak government determined to veto any agreement on the return from Chagos to Mauritius.

The next few weeks promise to be decisive with the declared intention of the Prime Minister, Pravind Jugnauth, to organize a new tour in the Chagos archipelago, without permission from London, as was the case last February for the Blenheim Reef Expedition to the North of the archipelago with a view to demarcating the maritime borders with the Maldives archipelago.

The aspect of territorial integrity, engaged by the republic for 55 years already, begins a new episode in the face of these British hawks...