Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be only 3.2% this year instead of 3.5% announced in June by the analysts of the state. Statistics Mauritius bases its forecasts on growth scenarios in several key sectors of the economy.
Thus, the sugar sector will experience a decrease of 7% due to an average production of 410 000 tonnes this year, against 435 000 tonnes for the 2011 season.
The manufacturing sector will record a growth of 1% against 2.2% last year. Sugar factories in turn slowed due to lower production. They will register a negative growth of 3.4% against 3.8% growth last year.
Textiles will also decline at 2.7%, a decrease from the strong expansion of 8% in 2011. The export industry sector recorded a growth near zero with only 0.6%, against 8.4% in 2011.
For other manufacturing industries, the growth rate will be 1.6% versus 1% last year. The hotel sector will decline by 0.5%. The number of tourists for the year 2012 has been revised downwards: 960,000 visitors are expected only when in 2011 they were 964,000. Our goal of 1 million tourists a medium term away.
The situation is not favorable with a severe economic crisis in Europe, our main market. Diversification of our customers will not be overnight.
After the 2% decline last year's construction sector, 2012 looks bleak even with a drop of 1.2%.
By cons, new sectors promise to be more buoyant than traditional areas. And transport and communications will record a growth of 4.4% this year, marginally lower than the 4.9% in 2011.
Finance will also increase by 4.8% compared to 5.5% in 2011. The side of other economic aggregates, the savings rate will be 14.9%, marginally lower than the 15% in 2011. Consumption expenditure of households and the government will increase by 2.6%, marginally higher than the 2.5% in 2011.
The investment rate will be 0.7% decline following the stagnation of 0.3% last year. The private investment will fall by 3.3%.
This has the backdrop of a private investment of 3.3% and a capital increase of 7.7% in the public sector.