Mauritius

April 15, 2014

Forecast: the IMF Expects Growth of Just 4%

The latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the economic outlook, released last week, confirms a recovery in the global economy, but its projections for Mauritius may disappoint.

The figures are however not so bad. The country's economic growth is expected to accelerate this year to 3.7% in 2014 according to the IMF, and gradually increase to 4.2% in 2016, and then stabilized at around 4%. These forecasts are however significantly below those of the Department of Finance, which had relied in its 2014 budget, an increase of 5%. In addition, some observers point to a growth of 4% may be largely insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate, which stood at 8% in 2013. A 4% growth, however, should enable the country to achieve status of high-income countries in the coming years, provided it is maintained over time.

Another disturbing element: the signs of times that are slow to emerge. If we stick particularly in the last bulletin National Accounts of Statistics Mauritius , who notes that the Mauritian economy has experienced low growth of only 2.9% in the last quarter of 2014. Tourist arrivals, another indicator of the economic health, are not encouraging, with a decline of 0.8% recorded in the first quarter of 2014.

Stronger and wider

On the global level, however, optimism seems to be appropriate. " The recovery becomes stronger but also more broad , "said Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counsellor at the publication of the quarterly report of the institution, which is entitled" Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven " . Global growth is expected to reach 3.6% this year, after rising 3% in 2013.

A positive point for Mauritius should be resumed in advanced economies. As regards the euro area, the IMF forecasts a return to growth of 1.2% after a 0.5% decline last year. The United Kingdom has also experienced a significant rebound, and is expected to grow 2.5% this year. Remains, however, whether this renewed growth in Europe will lead to a recovery in external demand for goods and services in Mauritius.

 

Text by lexpress.mu
 

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